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When
you bet on a football or basketball game, you'll typically be
playing against a "pointspread." Team A will be favored
by 7 points over Team B for example. You'll either take Team A to
win by more than 7, or Team B to lose by less than 7¡or to win
the game outright. It's important to remember that the pointspread
DOES NOT represent a prediction on the game from the sports book
or casino¡but rather, a number that it believes will split the
money evenly to reduce their risk.
You see¡when you bet a straight play like this, you have to risk
your money in an 11/10 ratio (that extra 10% is called the
vigorish, or the "vig" or "juice" in slang).
You risk $11 to win $10¡or $110 to win $100¡or $55 to win 50,
etc‿Ideally from the sports book perspective¡half the
wagerers will take one team in a game, half will take the
other¡then the sports book will make its profit from the losing
side. Imagine that wagerers as a group risked $55,000 to win
$50,000 on Team A, and $55,000 to win $50,000 on Team B. It
doesn't matter who wins¡the sports book will pocket $5,000 in
profit¡and use the other $50,000 from the losers to pay off the
winners.
All of this is important to you, because it means that SPORTS
WAGERING IS THE BEST MONEY MAKING PROPOSITION IN ALL OF WAGERING
FOR SMART PLAYERS!
Think about it, the laws of probability rule all the other casino
games. The odds concerning the next card that comes up in
blackjack or poker, where the ball's going to land in roulette,
what number is about to be rolled in craps, etc‿The casinos
know the laws¡and have adjusted their payoffs accordingly. For
the most part, you have to get lucky to win. You can't PURPOSELY
beat roulette any more than you can purposely hit the jackpot at a
slot machine.
BUT, YOU CAN, THROUGH HARD WORK, RESEARCH, AND INTELLIGENCE BEAT
SPORTS POINTSPREADS!
Pointspreads are based on perceptions of the wagering public.
Because the wagering public isn't perfect in its analysis¡there
are holes that can be exploited each and every day. There are
7-point favorites who should be 10-12 point favorites¡there are
underdogs who have matchup advantages that will yield a straight
up victory¡there are good teams about to have an off-day, and
bad teams who play over their heads in certain scenarios. For
smart handicappers, THE MONEY IS THERE FOR THE TAKING!
Football and Basketball are similar in that they use pointspreads.
Baseball generally uses a money line. Hockey uses either a
"puck" line (similar to a pointspread but based on
goals), or a money line like baseball.
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